the purpose of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s highly publicized secret visit to Moscow on Sept. 7 was to provide the Russians with a list of Russian scientists and engineers working on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Think about this with me for a moment, because there are a lot of layers to this onion. First, Mossad is rarely wrong, so this list was probably very complete, down to the color of the sweater the "scientists and engineers" were wearing last Saturday - it's not a bluff. So, the Russians, not some rogue North Korean or Pakistani scientists are helping Iran with it's nuclear weapons program. To which, you can only ask "why?"
One big reason is that the Russians, like their Soviet brethren before, live by the philosophy that the "enemy of my enemy is my friend." They are putting down a marker that says Obama is not going to make any headway with the mullahs and the latter will continue to be a thorn in the side of the Americans. Secondly, they need the cash. Russia is dying demographically and economically. Their economy is totally dependent upon oil exports and that's not such a good bet right now...so, peddling nuclear weapon technology and other "tools and implements of destruction" is good business for them.
Second point of concern - the Iranians are probably a lot closer to getting the bomb than even the hapless IAEA knows. Building a nuclear "device" is not that hard once you have the fissible material. Weaponizing that device so that you can accurately deliver it is a whole 'nother problem. You gotta shrink the device, steer the rockets etc. etc. The Soviets, er, Russians, have a pretty lengthy track record of doing this.
The real "why" of it though is that the Russians don't mind seeing our ability to bring a carrier battle group up into the Persian Gulf sharply diminished with a nuclear power all along one side. Further, look at the business opportunity! If you think that the Saudis and Egyptians will sit idly by once Iran gets a nuke, think again. They may all go out and do the "death to Israel" dance, but those two wouldn't mind seeing a wing of Israeli F-16's alpha strike the mullahs nukular plants.
If the report of Bibi going to Moscow is true, it probably means that their planning is a lot further down the line for an attack. My guess is after the attack, they would identify the Russians as one of the reasons they had to move.
Now for the big question - the one that is on all our bracelets these days - "W.W.O.D?" What will Obama do? Stratfor's analysis is poignant:
It is not clear to us that the Russians or Iranians are getting the message yet. They have convinced themselves that Obama is unlikely to act because he is weak at home and already has too many issues to juggle. This is a case where a reputation for being conciliatory actually increases the chances for war. But the leaks this weekend have strikingly limited the options and timelines of the United States and Israel. They also have put the spotlight on Obama at a time when he already is struggling with health care and Afghanistan. History is rarely considerate of presidential plans, and in this case, the leaks have started to force Obama’s hand.
There really are only two options left - war or serious economic sanctions. Continued blathering at Achmadinijad and praying that your dynamic personality are going to save the day are not options. What will it be Mr. President? It's 3AM and the phone is ringing.
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