Wednesday, October 5, 2011


There's a great article over at New Geography titled "Are We Headed for China's Fat Years."  In it, the author, Joel Kotkin discusses the chilling novel "The Fat Years," that raises the spectre of a Chinese "1984" arising out of the ashes of a Euro-American collapse.  Kotkin sketches the plot line of the book which is scheduled for publication in the US the first of next year, and concludes that the fears are an unwarranted case of sinophobia.  We have scribed about this in these pages for some time and my thinking on the subject is largely driven by the demography of China which Kotkin touches upon:

  • Ethnic splits between the Han Chinese and the polyglot of cultures that make up the balance of the country.
  • A demographic nightmare in an aging population coupled with (courtesy of social engineering and abortion) a highly disproportionate number of young men to young women - one of the central problems in the Arab world.
  • An enormous income disparity between the coasts and the interior.
Put all that together with a centralized control government and you get a grim future, not one that includes running the world.  China, in my opinion, will have one of two ways out...neither one of them pretty.  Option one is a collapse into a neutron star Maoist state of horrific control.  Option two some form of outward aggression to keep the populace busy and, more importantly, loyal.  

The option they are not going to take anytime soon, but which would truly save them in the long run, would be freedom.  Imagine the brain power that could be unleashed if a truly free-market economy were to emerge in China.  I would not just be afraid of such a future - I'd be willing to learn Chinese to become a part of it!  Sadly, I don't foresee that happening.  But that is about the only way the Chinese will overtake the United States.  A word of caution though - the policies of this administration continue to undermine our economy and reduce our competitiveness.  That might be the path down which China overtakes us; but it will only be if we allow our freedom to continue to be usurped.

Rumble on!

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